T. Belman. Will the left plus the Joint list actually come together to pass the proposed legislation to prevent Netanyahu from forming a government? Will the Court uphold the legislation?
This is why Likud is petitioning for a recount. They want to buy time.
In the past I strongly recommended that Netanyahu be ousted as I couldn’t see how he could get a block of 61 seats. I argued that with Bibi gone there would be a number of potential partners for Likud and so there are including Liberman.
Lieberman knows he has to do something to break the deadlock, or he will be blamed for compelling a fourth round of national voting. But what does he actually stand for?
by Rabbi Dov Fischer, ISRAEL HAYOM
It seems increasingly clear, for those who read between the lines of Avigdor Lieberman’s words, that he and his Yisrael Beytenu party will leave the religious wars for another day if only he can oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now. He wants him out more than anything else in the world, and he may yet get his putsch.
Through three consecutive elections now, Lieberman has held the balance of power in his hands. The Likud-Religious bloc has emerged serially with 60 seats, 55, and now 58. In each case the center-left alliance Blue-and-White has emerged with allies on the Left with approximately 40 seats. The Arab coalition of four anti-Zionist parties under the rubric of their “Joint List” keeps emerging with more seats: the first time 4, the second time 13, and this time 15. Meanwhile, Lieberman keeps getting 5-8 seats.
Lieberman’s party base is composed of older Russian immigrants who are fiercely anti-communist but secular. They will not sit in a government with Arab parties, and the Arab parties will not sit with them. The Arabs know that Lieberman’s dream peace plan envisions new borders that would have as many Arabs as possible left out of sovereign Israel, perhaps handing over the entire northern region landmass known as the “Triangle” in exchange for agreement by the Palestine Authority to concede Israel’s rights to the Jewish communities of Judea and Samaria.
No self-respecting Arab party can sit with Yisrael Beytenu, and Lieberman’s voters came for a Jewish life in Israel and encountered a region with Muslim terrorism that they never had to accept as a necessary part of life back in the USSR.
So it is a stalemate. Three times in a row, the Likud-haredim bloc emerged near the 61 seats needed to form a Knesset majority, but not close enough. Three consecutive times, Benny Gantz’s results are even more distant.
Blue and White simply cannot form a government because, since they cannot get the Arabs and Lieberman to sit together, they cannot reach 61 unless Likud agrees to give away its predominant status among a Jewish Israeli electorate whose votes repeatedly orient distinctly to the right.
Not only do the right-wing votes secured by the right-wing bloc and Lieberman tally together in the mid-60s, but it is manifest that Moshe Yaalon’s Telem wing of Blue and White also inherently are Likud-right oriented, only disdaining Netanyahu on a personal basis.
Moreover, there are any number of additional “Never Bibi” Likud-oriented votes absorbed within Blue and White. Any fair assessment from three consecutive national elections in one year points to a Jewish electorate that is close to two-thirds right wing but only one-third Center-Left.
Lieberman knows this, and he also knows that he will bear his share of blame if this third election yet again results in the need for yet another do-over. He obtained 173,000 votes in the election of April 2019. He was rewarded for his anti-religious obstinacy in the second round, in September, when he garnered 310,000 votes. But something changed this third time in March, as his vote total dropped precipitously to 263,000.
Lieberman is a skilled and wily politician, and he can read tea leaves, even in a samovar. If he initially was seen as heroic after holding his ground in April, some fifteen percent of his September second-round voters backed off this time, seeing him more as petty and stubborn to the point of driving the country to ruin.
He lost a seat, and he can see the downward direction his party is trending for next time, even as his caprice is resulting in growing and expanding the Joint Arab List he reviles. He has peaked, and voters are piqued.
Lieberman, who has favored annexing Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria and has advocated a mercilessly fierce response to Hamas rocket fire from Gaza, does not want the Joint Arab List’s Ahmad Tibi and Ayman Odeh impacting Israeli security policy.
He knows that no matter what he does and demands, the Likud-Right bloc is set at 55 seats or more, and the Jewish Center-Left cannot break 40-45. The Likud cannot, dare not, and will not sell out its religious-political partners in Shas (Sephardi haredi), United Torah Judaism (Ashkenazic haredi), and Yamina (religious zionist) because not only are they Likud’s critical core to block Blue and White, but also because Likud actually draws a significant number of direct votes now from religious zionists who have moved over from Yamina, feeling certain that their votes for Likud also secure Yeminah.
One need only look at the constellation of Likud Knesset members to see more and more knitted kippot and Orthodox women among their number, like the high-ranking Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein and Minister Tzipi Hotovely.
Lieberman knows he has to do something to break the deadlock, or he will be blamed for compelling a fourth round of national voting. He realizes, though will not concede, that he cannot break the religious status quo at this time. But is that what he really wants most anyway? He did, after all, sit with the UTJ and Shas for years in coalition harmony. It appears, most of all, that his primary goal is to break Netanyahu. But why?
Ultimately the matter is one of speculation. Here is my best guess. Nearly a decade ago, police conducted a wide-ranging corruption investigation within Lieberman’s party. Gil Messing, then a director of communications for the Strauss food manufacturer, wore a wire and help the police.
As a result, one of the party’s leaders, former Tourism Minister Stas Misezhnikov, was convicted and sentenced to fifteen months’ imprisonment for using state funds to help a romantic friend get employment, and others in the party also were convicted.
Ronen Moshe, a party spokesman, was convicted of corruption and money laundering, while Tali Keidar, a former Misezhnikov adviser, was convicted of bribery. The scandal almost destroyed Lieberman’s party and markedly reduced its Knesset size, weakening his claim to head the Ministry of Defense.
Lieberman, who himself never was a suspect in the investigations, condemned the era as a “witch hunt.” When the same Gil Messing later was named by IDF chief Aviv Kochavi to serve as spokesman for the Israel military, Israel’s then-acting Minister of Defense approved the appointment. That person was Benjamin Netanyahu.
With Netanyahu trial set to begin on March 17, Lieberman can deny Netanyahu the 61-seat majority he needs. When early polls on election night predicted a 60-seat Likud-Religious bloc emerging from the voting, it was conceivable that a single Knesset cross-over could be induced to make a government. However, it is hard to see three jumping ship.
Could Lieberman be gumming the wheels of Israeli government for a year just because he is harboring a driving desire for personal revenge to see the same Netanyahu pay a price for the same kinds of charges that include bribery and corruption? If vengeance is a dish best served cold, can Lieberman be that frosty? If yes, he will deliver his seven Yisrael Beytenu seats to Likud’s 58-seat bloc in return for Netanyahu stepping down. And he will leave the religious wars for another day.
“Choose which one you would prefer as neighbour Mr Almoni-Palmoni form Givatayim – Shenkin st – Ramat Aviv Gimel …. Liberman is a dangerous opportunist , who does not have any moral standing except serving his paymaster the ex-STASI friend Martin Schlaff .” Please tell us more about these individuals, Mr. Dinastar. This is the first I’ve heard of them. If Leiberman is “run” by a former Stasii agent, maybe this man is only a “babysitter” working for Putin.
From Today’s Arutz Sheva:”Will Liberman recommend Gantz? Blue and White Chairman Benny Gantz wrote on Twitter on Sunday that he accepted the conditions set by Avigdor Liberman for his Yisrael Beytenu party to join a future coalition.
In response to Liberman’s post, Gantz tweeted, “Agreed. We must move forward.”
Later this week, President Reuven Rivlin is expected to begin consultations with the various factions regarding whom they recommend to attempt the formation of a coalition, and Blue and White is currently making efforts to ensure that Liberman recommends Gantz for the task.
Earlier Sunday morning, Liberman wrote a message on his Facebook account titled: “Yisrael Beytenu’s threshold conditions for joining the next coalition.”
In his post, Liberman laid out five issues the implementation of which he said was the condition for his party to join the next coalition.
Liberman’s first condition is “A minimum income of 70% of the minimum wage in the economy for all pensioners living from income support and old age pension.”
His second condition is “Transfer of all authority in the matter of public transportation and the opening of businesses on Shabbat to local government.”
The additional conditions are “The Draft Law in the version approved in first reading in the 20th Knesset,” the “Civil Marriage Law,” and “conversion by municipal rabbis, such that every municipal rabbi can establish a court and carry out conversions.”
It should be noted that not relying on the votes of the Joint list is not one of Leiberman’s conditions for joining a Gantz government. He has dropped this demand. An extremely ominous development.
Between Bibi and Tibi , there is not a single cultural-ideological block ; the so called center-left is a herd of rapacious bourgeois who are well-off enough to distract their empty lives with the ” get out Bibi ” motto. Their children are dodging the draft . THey behave like the leftists of europe ” Globalisation is fine but not in my backyard ” . A bunch of egoists, post-zionist , rich loafers . Now in Israel it is either the right or the arabs . Choose which one you would prefer as neighbour Mr Almoni-Palmoni form Givatayim – Shenkin st – Ramat Aviv Gimel …. Liberman is a dangerous opportunist , who does not have any moral standing except serving his paymaster the ex-STASI friend Martin Schlaff .
From this morning’s Arutz Sheva:”
Over the weekend, hate photos against Gantz and against senior members of Blue and White were circulated, amid the party’s intention of forming a minority government with the predominantly Arab Joint List party.
A person also wrote on his Facebook page, “Gantz should be murdered in Rabin Square and join Rabin.” ”
So much for Gantz’s campaign promise not to form a government with the Joint list. Notice how he is trying to play the victim card by claiming that the Likud is conspiring to assassinate him. It s much more likely that leftists are plotting to assassinate Netanyahu. Gantz’s rhetoric may reflect the psychological phenomenon of “projection,” in which the individual attributes to the target of his hatred his own evil intentions toward that person. In this way, he can justify his contemplated aggression as a justifiable “first strike.”
I find Dov Fischer the most incisive, direct, to the topic, outspoken and interesting writer in Arutz Sheva or indeed, anywhere, lately. He seems to be making stronger points in stronger, impatient language, more now than at any other time..
Maybe just my impression..
From this morning’s Arutz Sheva:”Labor-Gesher-Meretz Chairman MK Amir Peretz on Saturday night responded to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s claim that the left-wing bloc is trying to steal the elections.
“Netanyahu’s attempt to incite the public to take the the streets and upend the results of the elections is not legitimate and is dangerous,” Peretz said.
“The elections are over, and the task of forming a government has been turned over to the Knesset. Any attempt to garner a majority to form a government is legitimate. Any vote, whether from a Jewish citizen or an Arab, is equal.
“I congratulate the party heads who are making every effort to form a new government of change and hope, even if it is a minority government. This is our obligation to our voters, this is our obligation to our values. We must not allow anyone to drag us to additional elections.”
The center-left bloc has 55 Knesset seats, but Yisrael Beytenu has said that it will “will not sit and will not cooperate, directly or indirectly, with terror supporters, including the Joint Arab List,” making it near-impossible for Blue and White to form a government.” (?????! Will Leiberman keep his promise?)
From this morning’s Ynetnews: “Blue & White leader Benny Gantz said Saturday that he intends to form a government.
“I will form a strong and stable government that would cure Israel of hatred and division,” Gantz told journalists, announcing an end to the “Netanyahu era” in Israeli politics.
“I will do anything to avert the prospect of a fourth election,” Gantz said. “We are five days after the toughest, most bitter and hate-filled election campaign in Israel’s history.”
So Gantz says he will unify the country and bring about an end to hatred while spewing hatred at Bibi and Likud. Really makes great sense. In the U.S., similar people make the same inconsistent claim that they will end hatred and division while spewing hatred for Trump.
This is Israel Hayom’s version of the story, also dated March 6: “YERUSHALAYIM –
As Binyamin Netanyahu pointed out extensively during the election campaign, Benny Gantz would not be able to form a government without the help of the United Arab List – and the possibility of that actually happening increased greatly Thursday night, over reports that Moshe Yaalon, who had opposed the idea, has changed his mind. According to the report by Haaretz, the List would vote for Gantz as the choice for prime minister – sans the party’s Balad MKs, who would abstain.
Together with the votes of Yisrael Beytenu, that would give Gantz 59 votes – one more than the number Binyamin Netanyahu could garner from the right-wing bloc, and enough to form a minority government. The government would not necessarily include the List, but it’s likely the Arab MKs would get significant representation on Knesset committees and significant budgets for projects they promote.” Real back-stabbers. And the people they are stabbing in the back are their own voters. Not to mention all Jews.
Tonight’s Arutz Sheva confirms the jist of the JP’s story, although not as clearly. However, A7 adds this interesting report: “Meanwhile, the Prosecutor’s Office and Israel Police have announced that they will begin investigating Gantz, after Ronen Tzur, one of Gantz’s advisers, sent a complaint to the Attorney General and the Interim State Prosecutor requesting them to open a criminal investigation, Channel 13 reported.”
From tonight’s Jerusalem Post: “Blue and White leader Benny Gantz revealed on Saturday night he is in the midst of negotiations on the formation of what he said would be a strong government that would end rifts in the nation.
Gantz said he could not reveal details because sensitivity was important to ensure the success of the talks. But it is believed he will form a minority government of his Blue and White Party, Labor-Gesher-Meretz and Yisrael Beytenu, with the outside backing of the Joint List.”
So much for all those fine campaign promises. If this is accurate, my prediction after the first election, for which I was subjected to so much ridicule, may turn out to have been accurate, but only nine months too early . But I hope and pray that I was wrong. I would much rather be subject to ridicule than to see these deceitful, disloyal people running Israel.
I hope that this attempt fails, and exposes Gantz Leiberman and company to the scorn of the Israeli people.