T. Belman. I have some trouble with Jeremy Bob’s analysis. First he left out the fact that Netanyahu said he would restrict the volume of building. If we had unlimited volume many would be happy with the limitation, but we don ‘t. Jerusalem just announced 25,000 new housing starts planned. Let’s see how far that gets.
Secondly he fears a Trump’s reaction should we displease the Arabs whom Trump wants to please. Even if we piss off the Arabs and Trump, the Arabs will still cooperate with Trump as it is in their mutual interest to do so.
By Jonah Jeremy Bob
Regarding the parameters of U.S.-Israeli policy on West Bank settlements, nothing is clear and everything is clear.
Nothing is clear in that there have been no public declarations by either side of the guidelines they will commit to for settlement building and limits on that building. Everything is clear in that the basic principles and dynamics of how President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu are approaching the settlement issue are set.
What have the many leaks taught us about what the actual specifics of U.S.-Israeli views on settlements policy might be? Even if nothing is clear, it appears that the U.S. is endorsing Israeli building in east Jerusalem and in the settlement blocs –areas expected to remain part of Israel even if there is a future peace deal.
It appears that the U.S. is generally opposing Israeli building outside of the settlement blocs.
Israel would have been thrilled with this under President Barack Obama, but now there is strong pressure from the Jewish Home party of Naftali Bennett to push for more.
Both before and after the Netanyahu and Trump summit, Bennett has pressed Netanyahu to achieve a historic moving of the flagpoles. In that spirit, Netanyahu has sought to seal a win of sorts that will reduce the pressure on him from Bennett whenever the next election comes around.
This is his “Amona Move.” He has explained to Trump that he committed to the residents of the unauthorized outpost Amona, which he evacuated before Trump took office, to build them a new settlement.
Netanyahu has told Trump’s messenger, Jason Greenblatt, that he cannot renege on this commitment and that it must be grandfathered in before any agreement about ceasing building beyond established settlement blocs. The prime minister could then mitigate Bennett’s attack from the right.
However, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia — all American allies who Trump said he would listen to far more than Obama did — as well as the Palestinians all reject this new settlements idea as destroying any new goodwill before peace talks begin.
The Trump administration is likely trying to weigh whether it can give Netanyahu what he wants and keep its Arab allies onboard or whether he must twist the prime minister’s arm on the issue. But if the above story is mere informed conjecture, we do know everything already of the overall approach of the U.S. and Israel’s current administrations to the settlement issue.
They view it as a minor issue to finesse. Trump famously asked Netanyahu at their summit to “hold back a bit” on settlements, almost as a throwaway after talking about the ultimate deal.
If Trump gets all of the moderate Arab Sunnis to offer Israel peace, he believes Israel will move off some redlines and make concessions in the West Bank that Netanyahu would not otherwise dream of.
He is not going to get bogged down, as he thinks Obama did, in fighting with Netanyahu and the Palestinians about settlements and miss what he views as the bigger picture. Many top Israeli security and intelligence officials agree with Trump on that general point.
But this approach ignores the sticking points of Jerusalem, the Old City and the Palestinian refugees — all deal-breakers for the Palestinians and the moderate Arabs.
And even without those issues, Netanyahu may not be following his own warning to others not to exhaust Trump’s goodwill by asking for too much. Right now, Trump does not view the settlements as a major issue.
But if Netanyahu and Israel embarrass Trump and his messengers with new settlements building announcements like they did during former Vice President Joseph Biden’s 2010 visit to Israel, he could find the angry, vengeful Trump an even more difficult partner than Obama.
And Trump may get tougher with Israel once he runs into his first Middle East crisis. Obama was immediately tough, but immediately dealt with the 2008-2009 Gaza war fallout. In contrast, Trump has been quiet. In 2015-2016, Gaza fired only 39 rockets on Israel — the lowest since records have been kept. The trend has continued in 2017 and the “Knife Intifada,” if not gone, is at a low.
But conflict is always right around the corner, and Trump may get tougher on Israel once he must confront a crisis.
Whether one thinks the settlements are a key sticking point in reaching peace, a blessing or a minor issue, Netanyahu should not dream too big and be careful not to take advantage of Trump’s current support for Israel, keeping his eye on the long-term relationship and the unknown crises over the horizon.
Top photo: U.S. President Donald Trump (R) sits with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House on February 15, 2017 in Washington, D.C. (Photo by Andrew Harrer – Pool/Getty Images)
A Baltimore native, Yonah Jeremy Bob is the intelligence, terrorism and legal analyst for The Jerusalem Post.
The right of the Jewish People to settle in Palestine west of the Jordan is express in Article 6 of the Mandate for Palestine and authorized at San Remo. Recognition of their collective right to political self-determination under international law was deferred subject to their attaining a population majority in the area of rule and the capability of exercising sovereignty as specified in 1933 Montevideo Convention. These conditions have been met. There is no reason to deprive the Jewish People of these rights that cost so much in blood and treasure.
As long as Trump believes that he must broker a deal between two allies, Israel will be prevented from ignoring the arab demands..
Trump must not be swayed by what the Arabs want as all previous presidents have been. He must reject their demands and support Israel. The arabs will still kiss his ass to get his support against Iran.
Israel should abandon negotiations because they lead to painful concessions. Instead Israel should act unilaterally.
We will find out in a bit what Trumps actual policies are. Just watched an interview with Katie McFarlan (who is in the Trump Administration) that they are in the process of reviewing all US Foreign Policy to everywhere in the world.
Trump like most previous Presidents on somethings, said one thing while campaigning and may not stick to those points while actually governing. Trump as we knew would have to learn on the job.
Hopefully he will remain pro Israel. For the most part he has been a great improvement over Obama. A very low bar I admit.