PM faces tough election campaign but now has his party behind him, as primary voters deal a crushing blow to the ‘contractors’ who long held outsized influence
Sometime early last year, Benjamin Netanyahu realized with a start that he had lost control of the Likud party machine.
MK Danny Danon, who chairs the Likud’s Central Committee, led a dramatic uprising against Netanyahu’s control of party institutions and tried to push through changes to the Likud constitution that would have weakened Netanyahu’s control over the party — and severely limited his ability to set national policy.
The story of the “takeover” of Israel’s ruling party by its more rightist wing, of the rising influence of West Bank annexationists such as MK Moshe Feiglin and Danon, of the party’s rightward “lurch,” became a recurring theme of Netanyahu’s third government, which collapsed last month triggering early election.
And there was some truth to this narrative. As he partook in US-brokered peace talks with the Palestinians, Netanyahu faced a constant stream of initiatives in the Central Committee to weaken him, including one proposal to limit his ability to run for a third consecutive term as party leader and another that would allow the committee to remove him as party leader if he defied its dictates on peace talks. Netanyahu successfully defeated these initiatives, but not without a struggle.
With the publication Thursday of the results of Wednesday’s Likud party primary, the prime minister has visibly and decisively regained control of his party — not only through a Knesset list in which his allies and party moderates gained ground, but in the crushing defeats that the Likud’s primary voters delivered to the organized pressure groups that have opposed him in recent years.
Likud MK Miri Regev (photo credit: Kobi Gideon / Flash90)
Likud MK Miri Regev (photo credit: Kobi Gideon / Flash90)
The new list has not erased the ideological divide within Likud between those who support annexation of the West Bank and those who support a two-state solution — several influential opponents of a Palestinian state in the West Bank, such as Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, MK Miri Regev, Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz, and coalition chairman Ze’ev Elkin, made it to the top ten slots on the list.
The primary did not see any dramatic ideological shift to the left or right, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t mark another kind of upset.
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon with supporters outside a Likud primary polling station in Jerusalem, December 31, 2014. (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon with supporters outside a Likud primary polling station in Jerusalem, December 31, 2014. (photo credit: Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)
Two significant figures dropped precipitously in the list. MK Haim Katz fell from 12th place in the 2012 primaries to No. 17 on Wednesday. MK Moshe Feiglin, who leads the “Jewish leadership” faction on the party’s right-most flank, fell even further, past the 27 slots publicized by the party on Thursday — and far past the 22-24 seats Likud is likely to get based on recent polls.
What makes these results remarkable is the single factor that unites the two men. Each leads an organized pressure group of primary voters that has had an outsized influence on Likud institutions in recent years.
Katz represents the Israel Aerospace Industries labor union, which joined the party en masse and votes in an organized fashion to keep Katz high on the list, allowing him — and, in effect, his union — to nab the chairmanship of the powerful Knesset Labor, Welfare and Health Committee.
Likud MK Moshe Feiglin (photo credit: Flash90)
Likud MK Moshe Feiglin (photo credit: Flash90)
Feiglin, meanwhile, who previously challenged Netanyahu for the Likud leadership and had considered doing so again on Wednesday, has worked for years to cobble together his own organized primary voting group, based in the more ideologically driven wing of the West Bank settlement movement, in an effort to influence Likud leaders’ decisions.
This strategy, whether implemented by labor unions or West Bank settlement advocates, has been dubbed “vote contracting” by politicians and journalists, and has been the bane of party leaders for years.
And the phenomenon has shown no signs of abating. Throughout 2014, as the popular Transportation Minister Katz (#4 in Wednesday’s primary) fought to open two new Mediterranean ports to compete with the existing union-controlled ports in Haifa and Ashdod, the Ashdod Port Workers Union launched a campaign to register its members for the Likud — for the sole purpose of threatening the political future of the minister who sought to circumvent their hold over the country’s most significant entry point for imported goods.
Similarly, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon drew the ire of some settler groups for IDF decisions to take down illegal West Bank settlements, and became the target of settler groups that sought to punish him by driving him down on the list.
Polls, political analysts and a long string of retired Likud cabinet ministers have all pointed to these groups as a damaging electoral force that drives party leaders to stake positions in the service of narrow, organized interests at the expense of Likud’s broader appeal.
MK Haim Katz leads a Labor and Social Welfare Committee meeting, on June 24, 2013. (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)
MK Haim Katz leads a Labor and Social Welfare Committee meeting, on June 24, 2013. (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)
But on Wednesday, these pressure groups lost badly. Ya’alon rose slightly in the polls despite the settlers’ opposition. Deputy Transportation Minister Tzipi Hotovely, another favorite of these groups, dropped into the mid-20s on the slate, and is unlikely to return to the Knesset. Yisrael Katz won 4th place despite a union’s ire, while union leader Haim Katz lost ground.
Netanyahu’s own distaste for vote contractors is rooted in the widespread belief that many of these primary voters will not support the Likud on Election Day. It has not escaped the notice of Likud leaders that the settler movement’s showing suffered so badly just days after a massive membership drive for the Likud’s main right-wing competitor Jewish Home. In a two-week membership drive, Jewish Home saw some 20,000 new members join its ranks, swelling its membership to 77,000, second only to Likud. It is illegal to be a member of two political parties simultaneously, so the simple fact that this mass-enlistment for an opposing party coincided with the dissolution of Likud’s right-most flank confirmed to many that the party’s right-wing fringe was not composed of Likud supporters.
Meanwhile, Wednesday’s biggest winners, whether experienced cabinet ministers like Erdan and Yisrael Katz, relative moderates like Ya’alon and Steinitz, or outspoken rightists such as Elkin and Levin, share one characteristic: all are allies and supporters of Netanyahu.
Wednesday’s vote produced no clear ideological message, but its political message was nonetheless potent. Likud’s rank and file, rightists and centrists alike, rallied around their leader. Netanyahu now heads toward an uncertain Election Day, facing a resurgent Labor and growing competition from Jewish Home on his right, with one certainty: his own Likud, at least, is emphatically behind him.
Read more: The day Netanyahu regained control of Likud | The Times of Israel http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-day-netanyahu-regained-control-of-likud/#ixzz3NfLQVBz4
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Debkafile is credibly reporting Likud’s Netanyahu in coalition negotiations with Labor’s Herzog with rotating premiership being discussed. The go-between is Michael Herzog, the brother. Bennet and the right are out.
Time to abandon Likud.
I hope Israel Home comes in first. Put Netanyahu in the opposition with Livni. Out to pasture. What a disgrace.
At a secret rendezvous on or about Thanksgiving 2014. The two secret lovers meet discreetly:
LIVNI: Bibi, this is crazy, Bennet and these ideologue rightists are making it impossible to travel the short distance to an historic agreement with President Abbas…and my numbers are down, we need a miracle.
NETANYAHU:Maybe we can fake a coalition crisis, I can’t mess with members of Likud cause I need their support in the new primary.
LIVNI: New primary? New Elections? Get out!
NETANYAHU: I can’t fire them so I’ll fire YOU…and Lapid, before the dust settles I’ll call for new elections. Don’t worry. I’ll have M. Herzog reserve a place for you in Labor with your key people. Herzog wants a deal, I know…and he knows that Bennet is more popular then I am on The West Bank…oh, don’t tell anyone I said that.
@ bernard ross:
The Likud, Labor, Meretz and the religious block havwe their traditional loyal following who would never change their votes even if the sky fell in. All the rest are transitory with the public jumping from one to another each election.
Those for the most part in ages 35 and younger hve no party allegiance or loyalty…. They are the ones who need to be bought. BB will try to spin the last two Gaza conflicts in a positive light but most people know the truth especially those living in the South which besides Jerusalem make up the bulk of Likud support. On social issues Likud loses big and on security issues which is usually the Likud backbone they go into this election with at best a spotty record.
I still say the game is still open and BB and the Likud can lose it. I have never voted the Likud, After BB’s first term I have been dead set against him even if it means Labor getting hold of government
Might as well have Labor running the country as BB we won’t feel must difference except rhetoric. Yamit82
Yamit knows more than I will ever know with respect to these polemics. Perhaps I am missing a piece of the puzzle but it seems to me that a Labor/livni/Meretz GOI, will by definition be an obama GOI, for all intents and purposes. The end result could very likely be a “palestinian state” and a nuclear armed Iran or a soon to be one, i.e the bad deal. On the other hand, Netanyahu has a proven track record of challenging the obama administration on these issues and yes, he has made concessions which make one’s blood boil, BUT; is there a “palestinian state in the making, on the horizon with bibi?? Is there a military option for preventing Iran from developing nukes if the bs negotiations either break down altogether or a bad deal is struck. We know for a fact that obama wants Netanyahu out and Livni/labor/Meretz, in and we know what he wants; Muslim brotherhood supremacy, a strong US alliance with Iran and a vibrant contiguous greater independant palestinian state without regard to Israel’s present security needs, defensible borders or it’s immediate future. Yamit, I respect you, but I think you may be wrong on this one, but I think you have a point and a legitimate concern. I am optimistic that Bennet will come on strong and influence Netanyahu to continue the drift away from dead Oslo commitments in favor of a long term strategy to protect the vital interests which will in time need to claimed, hopefully in full.
With Jewish home taking the likuds right it makes political and opportunistic sense for BB to take more of the center and left.
I have no idea what the likud stands for. I expect that those who like BB vote for lIkud, a vote for a person as opposed to a platform. A person without a platform.
@ ArnoldHarris:
With over 60% of the Israeli electorate still undecided much too early to make predictions such as your on inadequate assumptions.
Whether BB or should say the likud comes out on top a lot depends on the margin of plurality.
Lieberman could decide not to support. Shas ditto, The orthodox hate his guts and don’t trust him Lapid won’t support hi nor Labor and Meretz. Bennett will demand a high price for his support or should. Labor if they poll close to Likud or surpass the Likud could cobble together a coalition for a price and all hate BB.
The religious will sit with any government who gives them what they want and labor will give them what they want if it means getting a government,,
Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Bennett could steal a lot of votes from Likud like most of Feiglins past supporters in the Likud. That could be worth from 1 to 3 mandates?
The current Likud lineup is not pro settler or pro Land of Israel. Might as well have Labor running the country as BB we won’t feel must difference except rhetoric.
The Knesset election in March 2015 is becoming relatively predictable. Netanyahu, having solidified his control over Likud, is temporary but non-disputable king of HaLikud, and is also the many who has been identified by various polls as the one politician who can best lead the State of Israel following the Knesset elections. He runs the country now with the same grasp of authority as was exercised by Ben-Gurion back in the days of the Mapai+Mapam regime that controlled everything wall-to-wall.
As for this year’s election, polls consistently show Likud leading a relatively rightwing and religion coalition comprising 69-73 seats — far more than is needed by his regime to control the government. His only competitors, the combination of Labor and Livni, probably to include leftist Meretz, would be backed by only 29 votes. If they would be foolish enough to break the precedent set by Ben-Gurion at the birth of the State of Israel, which was to avoid counting on any of the Arab parties to put together a ruling coalition, they could increase their Knesset backing to possibly a bar 40 seats.
If they wished to try a cute trick, Bennett’s Beit Yehudi and Kahlon’s Kulanu parties could try the same kind of amalgamation that Labor and Livni engineered. In theory, that would give them about 28 Knesset seats, based on recent polls, which would put them ahead both of Labor+Livni and Likud. But I don’t know if they are made of the right stuff to pull off such a power play, and it is possible that if they did so and got away with it, Netanyahu and his now fully-controlled Likud could prove spiteful enough to refuse to play second-fiddle with them.
All things considered, I think Netanyahu will wind up on top once again. Assuming that inevitability, and my assumptions:
first, that neither Fatah nor Hamas ever will agree to anything remotely approaching acceptance of the Jewish State of Israel;
second, that no negotiations are possible and none ever shall be probable, and therefore,
third, Netanyahu has no realistic option but to strengthen and solidify the Jewish population of Shomron and Yehuda by firming up permanent Israeli control of Area C now, and later, causing the dissolution of Fatah by negotiating separate local autonomy arrangements with the leaders of the various urban Arab hamulas (blood-relationship clans) in the main Arab cities of Jenin, Tulkarem, Nablus, Kalkiliya, Ramallah, Jericho, and Hebron.
After that, tight suburban Jewish rings can be grown around each of these cities, creating an entirely new reality that neither the Arabs, the EU, the UNO, nor that any US president shall ever be able to undo.
If you don’t like an unsatisfactory reality, then do something that is within your power to change that reality.
Arnold Harris
Mount Horeb WI