To the many reasons why the current Israeli-Palestinian “peace talks” are a nonstarter, we can now add another: the situation in Egypt. The problem isn’t just that the chaos on Israel’s previously stable southern border decreases its willingness to take “risks for peace” that could replicate this situation in the West Bank. It’s also what the situation says about the Obama administration’s judgment.
As the Hudson Institute’s Samuel Tadros reminds us, when the Egyptian revolution broke out two years ago, the administration sought guidance in historical precedents:
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According to the New York Times, President Obama asked his staff to study transitions in more than 50 countries around the world in order to understand and predict where Egypt and other countries in the Middle East might be heading. After extensive study, his staffers predicted “that Egypt is analogous to South Korea, the Philippines and Chile.” Months later, the administration was still confident in its assessment. While aware of the obstacles that were on the way during the desired transition to democracy, Benjamin Rhodes, a deputy national security advisor was adamant that, “The trajectory of change is in the right direction.”
Needless to say, Egypt turned out nothing like South Korea, the Philippines, or Chile. The Muslim Brotherhood took power, only to prove both so incompetent and so anti-democratic that a year later, the military ousted it by popular demand (anti-Brotherhood demonstrations drew an incredible 14 million people into the streets). The Brotherhood didn’t go quietly, and now there’s a risk that this week’s carnage in Cairo will spark a civil war.
None of this was unpredictable. Indeed, from the very beginning, Israeli officials warned unanimously that nothing good would come of Egypt’s revolution, and most Israeli commentators (myselfincluded) agreed–for which we were roundly condemned by members of America’s foreign-policy establishment. Nor is it really surprising that Israel’s assessments proved more accurate than America’s: What happens in Israel’s immediate neighborhood has far more impact on Israelis’ lives than it does on Americans, and therefore Israelis invest more time and effort in trying to understand it.
Yet now the same people who got Egypt so badly wrong are demanding that Israelis trust them to referee an Israeli-Palestinian deal. The administration even sent a senior general, former U.S. commander in Afghanistan John Allen, “to define Israel’s security requirements” for it–and woe betide Israel if it begs to differ. But actually, President Barack Obama didn’t bother waiting for Allen’s conclusions; he asserted two years ago that the border must be “based on the 1967 lines,” and that this is perfectly compatible with Israel’s security needs. Never mind that no Israeli map of defensible borders has ever agreed.
In other words, the administration has already made clear that it won’t support Israel’s security demands; it expects Israel to bow to its judgment. But the people who thought Egypt’s revolution was going to resemble Chile or South Korea aren’t people whose judgment Israel can possibly rely on to assure its vital security needs. Under this situation, reaching a deal that satisfies Israel’s minimum security needs would be impossible even if all the other issues were somehow magically resolved.
But in fact, Secretary of State John Kerry has made it clear he wants to deal with borders and security first. And that means the blow-up won’t be long in coming.
yamit82 Said:
A c\w song or every occassion, I think I have sent this beore: http://youtu.be/Z_s-Qk07KxA
@ yamit82:
Observe,Darlin there are times that I a do agree with you,but its politics,not Art.
Another tack: Who’s the sucker?
Netanyahu is the poker player who was dealt a particularly atrocious hand, yet tries his darndest to stay in the game and pretend that he can actually avoid losing. Pretense in itself is of course a disincentive to learning anything from the past. What if he’s not actually throwing more good money after the bad? Why should he be branded intransigent with all the disadvantages that piles up? The poker face Netanyahu seeks to put on is known in political terminology as pragmatism. He plays along in the hope that something will somehow improve his odds along the way. He needs time. His luck may yet change.
Let’s be charitable. Netanyahu nowhere contemplates the betrayals that Sharon began springing on his unwary supporters a decade ago. Netanyahu’s heart may be in the right place, but he is too frightened to refuse to participate in a crooked game.
Pragmatically, he even deposits a down payment for the privilege of being fleeced.
Such pragmatism is sure to land us into more trouble than it would extricate us from. The road to disaster is paved with pragmatic good intentions.
Read full excellent article
@ Mladen Andrijasevic:
Another Tack: Hobson’s choice – The Obama variation
yamit82 Said:
I bet you were a “pain in the backside” to raisse,always lookin for a fight, your Mother is a saint!!!
@ yamit82:
You write “BB knows and is a Coward who won’t do anything that might risk his position of PM”
Isn’t Bibi in the same boat as all of us? Would not an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel kill him like everyone else? Would not inaction on his part actually jeopardize his position as PM more than anything?
polaris Said:
The Torah and common sense command that: If a fellow resident is a member of a gentile nation which claims sovereignty (or even non-sovereign possessory rights) over any portion of the Land of Israel, or if that fellow resident otherwise seeks the expulsion or annihilation of the Jewish people from the Land, then the Jewish people in its collective capacity, acting through the national leadership of the Jewish State, is required to expel or annihilate such a national enemy from the Land. Accordingly, the Jews, in their collective capacity, must apply the principles of Cruelty.
@ Mladen Andrijasevic:
BB knows and is a Coward who won’t do anything that might risk his position of PM. He will blame Obama for our passivity and inaction.
Obama knows what he is doing. as well. BB is in denial and the truth is we (Israel)short of using nukes against Iran have missed our operational window by several years. Conventionally it’s too late to stop Iran. Using Nukes….??? BB is afraid to really attack the Palis. Hamas and Hezbollah and you expect him to order a nuke attack against Iran?????
Mladen Andrijasevic Said:
Neither but I do trust both to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. They are both (fuck-ups) where everything they touch turns to crap).
beniyyar Said:
A MESSAGE FOR THOSE WHO BELIEVE THAT ISRAEL CANNOT SURVIVE WITHOUT THE UNWAVERING SUPPORT OF THE UNITED STATES:
The fate of Israel is not tied to America but the fate of America is tied to how they relate and interact on behalf of Israel.
“I will bless those who bless you and curse those who curse you.” Gen. 12:3
One need not be a Jew or christian or even believe in G-d to appreciate that this verse is as accurate a prediction as humanity has ever been given by the ancient world. The Jewish people have suffered longer and more horribly than any other living people. But they are still around. Its historic enemies are all gone. Those that cursed the Jews were indeed cursed.
The converse is what worries tens of millions of Americans — the day America abandons Israel, America will begin its descent. I believe the descent of America has already begun. It can still be reversed though.
The “Palestine Partition Commission: Report, October 1938” (British Blue Book Cmd. 5854) lists four objections to any plan of partition of Palestine. Two are no longer relevant. The other two are:
1. The Arab State would be far from self-supporting.
2. Any frontiers which could be drawn for a Jewish State would be inadequate for purposes of defence.
Both objections are still valid. A “two-state solution” remains unacceptable.
Beniyyar: The short answer is: It can’t. Not really. If Israel is a sovereign nation, it must take responsibility for its own security and not leave it to the Americans or anyone else, superpower or not. It’s not a question of not supporting the Americans; it is a matter of recognizing that that 10% may prove to be fatal to Israel if there is an administration that will not have Israel’s best interest at heart. I do agree that we should thank G-d that America is on our side, but maybe we should recognize that we should not completely trust human beings (even if they are “reliable” 90% of the time); the only one we should trust, of course is G-d.
How Can Israel Entrust Its Security to People Who Got Egypt So Wrong? The answer is that we have no other choice, unless Ms. Gordon has some other superpower ally in her back pocket to support us in Israel, we only have the Americans on our side. Why can’t you people get it straight, Israel is a small, dependent, and isolated nation which depends on the good will of the Americans for much of our security, and 90 percent of the time the Americans are reliable patrons. But Israeli and American interests are simply not the same, and we can hardly expect them to support us and understand our issues 100 percent of the time. And by the way, it is our duty as a people and a nation to support the Americans, not the other way around, I thank God every day that America is on our side and you all should do so also.
Mladen Andrijasevic Said:
Egypt has spit in Obama’s soup. Hopefully Israel now feels comfortalbe enough to do the same.
Worse, Israel is supposed to follow Obama’s recommendations on Iran. Now that’s suicidal!
Netanyahu vs. Obama… Whom do you trust more on Iran?
http://www.madisdead.blogspot.co.il/2013/08/netanyahu-vs-obama-whom-do-you-trust.html
NormanF Said:
Snake-bit?
Yup.
Does Netanyahu really intend to rely on whatever security guarantees are on offer from Obama and Kerry?
Then he’s a fool! The Americans cannot even support the least hostile side in Egypt. And they’re going to protect Israel from the likes of Hamas and Hezbollah? Don’t make me laugh!
Obama et al, remind me of city folks who watch “Rattlesnake Rebuliic” and then come out to Texas to catch one. They have no idea what they are “playing at”!