US-Egyptian relations on the rocks. El-Sisi wouldn’t accept Obama’s phone call

DEBKA

When the clashes between Egyptian security forces and pro-Morsi protesters were at their peak in Cairo Wednesday, Aug. 14 – 525 dead and 3,700 wounded to date – President Barack Obama put in a call to Egypt’s strongman, Defense Minister Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sissi, DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report.

The US president wanted to give the general a dressing-down much on the lines of the call he made to former president Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 at the high point of the Arab Spring Tahrir Sq demonstrations against his rule, namely: Stop repressing the protesters and firing live ammunition. Step down!

When Mubarak asked for a three or four days’ grace to break up the massed rally, Obama shot back that he has to quit NOW!

And indeed, on Feb. 11, the army announced the president’s resignation.

Realizing what was coming, Gen. El-Sissi decided not to accept President Obama’s call, our sources report. The Egyptian officials who received it informed the US president politely that the right person for him to address was Egypt’s interim president Adly Mansour and they would be glad to transfer the call to him. The White House callers declined.

This anecdote shows that the military strongman is not only determined to avoid the pitfalls which brought Mubarak down but is equally determined to keep the US administration from interfering in his plans for driving the Muslim Brotherhood out of Egyptian politics.

Diplomatic condemnation of those plans is building up in Western capitals.

Wednesday night, the Obama White House issued a statement strongly condemning “the use of violence against protesters in Egypt” and the state of emergency. Egyptian ambassadors in Paris, London and Berlin received denunciations and expressions of concern from their host governments, and Turkey demanded a UN Security Council emergency session on the situation in Egypt.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that harsh international condemnation of Gen. El-Sissi’s crackdown will do more harm than good. The backlash will come in three forms:

1. The Muslim Brotherhood will be encouraged to pursue increasingly extreme measures to fight the Egyptian army in the expectation of international applause.

2. The generals will be encouraged to escalate their steps for repressing the Brotherhood.

3. The Saudis and the Gulf Emirates will redouble their support for the Egyptian general and his campaign against the Brotherhood. This will widen the rift between those Arab rulers and the Obama administration.

Our intelligence sources also disclose that, while President Obama was trying to get through to Gen. El-Sissi, the general was on the phone with Prince Bandar, Director of Saudi Intelligence.

On July 31, Bandar arrived in Moscow and was immediately received by President Vladimir Putin for a conversation that lasted four hours. The Saudi prince next received an invitation to visit Washington at his earliest convenience and meet with President Obama.

Bandar has still not responded to that invitation.

Clearly, the US president’s problem with the Egyptian situation is a lot more complicated than pulling the army off the Muslim Brotherhood’s backs. He needs to somehow snap the strategic alliance unfolding between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the rapport between the Egyptian general and the Saudi prince.

August 16, 2013 | 12 Comments »

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  1. Saudi-Russian relations: between Assad and Sisi

    Stability in Egypt

    “King Abdullah came out strongly to support the new regime in Egypt. The Saudi King called on Arabs to stand together against “attempts to destabilize” Egypt. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, its people and government stood and stands by today with its brothers in Egypt against terrorism,” he said.

    It is clear that Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer stability in Egypt, and both are betting on the Egyptian military prevailing in the current standoff, and are already acting on that assumption. Here, Riyadh believes that Russian’s political and economic (shipments of wheat) support is vital for the new regime in Cairo, as it will provide it with the flexibility to stand up to the Western pressure, especially the American one.”

    It is in the interest of both countries, Russia and Saudi Arabia, that the prices of oil remain high to balance their budget. Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, requires an average crude price of $98 a barrel this year to break even, up from $94 last year, the Arab Petroleum Investments Corp., Apicorp, said recently in a report.

    Russia will probably require an average Brent oil price of $117.8 a barrel this year to balance its budget, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

    Iran’s nuclear program is yet another issue. Exactly like Saudi Arabia, Russia does not want to see Iran become a nuclear power. Yet Moscow and Riyadh want to keep their options open as a hedge policy towards Iran.

    Read More

  2. Laura Said:

    I sure wish Israel would not care about international opinion and treat its enemies the way the Egyptian military is.

    The stuff of Dreams. 🙁

  3. “Whatever regime emerges in Cairo, it will be post-American.”

    Consensus in Egypt
    By Mark Steyn

    For the same reason, the Gulf monarchies, having weathered the immediate storms of the Arab spring and understanding the longer-term threat the Brotherhood represents, have supplanted Washington as Cairo’s principal paymasters: The $1.5 billion subvention to Egypt was always a drop in the great sucking maw of the US Treasury; compared to what the Saudis and the Emirs are ponying up, it’s looking less and less consequential from the Nile end, too.

    Out in the wider world, Putin figures there’s a regional power play to be made, and that Moscow can be back in Cairo in a big way for the first time in four decades.

  4. The Saudis have the money to support a friendly Egyptian regime for years if necessary.

    And they’re terrified of a Muslim Brotherhood return to power in Egypt.

    They can and will do everything possible to block the Obama Administration’s drive to reinstate the MB in power.

    American influence on Egypt is very limited. And the Egyptian army brass do not care at all for Obama’s ham-fisted attempts to dictate their domestic policies. Most important of all – Arab regimes have hardly cared for international opinion.

    World condemnation of Egypt’s army will have no effect on whatever repressive policies it elects to pursue towards its foes at home.