DEBKAfile Special Report June 10, 2013,
Moscow is not ready to give up on getting Russian troops posted on the divided Golan as part of the UN force policing the Israeli-Syrian separation sector, even after rejections by the UN and Israel. Monday, June 10, the Russian lawmaker Aleksey Pushkov, an influential foreign relations policy adviser to the Kremlin, said: “The issue has not been yet solved, it is being considered. We must take some real action because we cannot exclude that the Syrian-Israeli topic would be involved in large-scale military action.”
Shortly before he spoke, the military announced in Moscow that the Russian Airborne Troops had formed a separate brigade especially designed to serve as peacekeepers “under the aegis of the United Nations or as part of the force set up by the Russian-led CSTO (Russian-Asian) security bloc for combating terrorism. Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan contribute special units.
Vladimir Shamanov, commander of Russian Airborne troops, said the new brigade had been awarded the status of “a peacekeeping unit” on June 1. He did not say by whom. DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose the Moscow proposes to give the “peacekeeping” brigade from the Russian Airborne Troops “teeth” in the form of of MI-24 combat helicopters.
The idea of placing Russian peacekeepers on the Golan was first voiced by President Vladimir Putin on June 7, after Austria decided to withdraw its 377-strong contingent from the area over an outbreak of fighting there between Syrian troops and rebels.
The idea was quickly shot down by the United Nations and Israel on the grounds that the Israeli-Syrian 1974 ceasefire accord barred veto-wielding UN Security Council members from participation in the peacekeeping force.
On June 8, DEBKAfile reported exclusively that Putin was determined to override Israeli and UN objections and get Russian troops deployed on the Syrian Golan by hook or by crook.
On June 9, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu publicly rejected the Putin offer, saying Israel could not afford to place its security in the hands of international forces.
Speaking at a Moscow press conference on Monday, MP Pushkov went on to say that it was too early to say that Vladimir Putin’s suggestion of placing Russian peacekeepers on the Golan Heights lacked perspectives or could not be implemented.
As though on cue, the Hizballah-controlled Lebanese Al Akhbar Monday quoted President Bashar Assad as warning that, for him, opening a front on the Golan against Israel was “a serious matter” and would not just consist of firing a few improvised rockets from time to time.
This gave Pushkov the opening for his warning to Israel: That Israeli authorities would oppose this step (Putin’s offer) was not surprising, he said, but he warned about possible consequences: “Assad could be replaced by radical Islamists in comparison with whom Assad would seem an angel from heaven,” said the Russian lawmaker.
“The people who are now offering friendship to Israel would not necessarily see Israel as their partner when they come to power, rather they would see it as an enemy,” the Russian MP said, hinting at the references made by Hizballah and Syrian government spokesmen to the relations Israel had purportedly formed with certain Syrian rebel groups. Hizballah broadcasts even depicted outdated Israeli tanks and other equipment, booty captured in its 2006 war with Israel, to prove its point.
Therefore, Pushkov advised Israeli leaders to pay more attention to the possible future scenarios in Syria and take into account that Russia could play a positive and stabilizing role in the region.
DEBKAfile notes that this was the first time any Russian official had mentioned the unmentionable: a possible future turn in the wheel of the Syrian conflict that would oust Assad and bring his foes, the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood and al Qaeda, to power in Damascus.
ppksky Said:
Russia is not now or ever has been a force for stability in anything. They are into creating instability and filling power vacuums they hope to create or help create.
Provide source for your statement,
IN CONTINUATION TO MY PREVIOUS COMMENT I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE CLEAR TO OUR CONTRIBUTORS THAT RUSSIA HAS ALWAYS HAD RUSSIAN OPERATIVES/ SOLDIERS / PEACE KEEPERS AT ALL TIMES IN SYRIA EVEN ON THE ISRAELI BORDER. My problem is that I do not trust Putin per se and his obvious wish to be a major player in the region
watsa46 Said:
An “opportunist”? That’s kind of empty accusation to make about somebody like Putin. Seriously, I’d like to know more about the man. I do know a little already, but not enough to know what he is about as head of the Russian Federation. He has a “KGB vision”? Again, the KGB was the enforcement end of the Communist Party. Are you saying he remains a communist? I don’t think he is a communist, but I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
You say “Let’s keep Assad and neuter Iran.” But Putin is all about keeping Assad too. It seems you two have something in common. So what if the Russian Federation spies on Israel? What’s it going to do? Again, I think it reduces to where the RF stands on Palestinian Nationalism. If it wasn’t any different than where the EU stands, what harm could it do? Frankly, I’d trust the Russians in Syria more than I would NATO. If the Russians were just as likely to enforce a Palestinian state against Israel, they are still less likely to stand by and let the rest of the Middle East crush Israel. And that is what Palestinian nationalism is really about.
Here is something to think about. Russia has reestablished itself as a Christian nation with the Russian Orthodoxy as its church. The Eastern Orthodoxy has its roots in what is now Turkey. Syria also was once Christian long before it was Muslim. A Russian presence in the area would do a lot to temper ambitions to a Caliphate resurgence. Remember the Ottoman Empire was based in Turkey, in Istanbul which was once Constantinople, the birthplace of Christianity as a lawful religion in the Roman Empire and modern Christianity as we know it.
Russia in Syria could throw a monkey wrench into Muslim global ambitions.
ppksky Said:
An opportunist with a KGB vision.
Russia would be on the front line to spy on IL. Who needs that. Could twist IL arm the way the US administration does (behind the scene). We all remember the loud claim made recently by Obama. No preconditions!!! It is all about preconditions.ppksky Said:
U r a foooooooooooool!
Let ‘s keep Assad and neuter Iran.
BethesdaDog Said:
This represents everything that I remain confused about regarding Russia. As it stands now, the Russian Federation is not the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union and its interest in the Middle East were bound to be different, their geopolitics were a part of strict Marxist orientation. The Russian Federation is not so constrained. The hand of the Soviet Union as a Marxist front never had much credibility or intellectual integrity, but it was there just the same. What drives the Russian Federation now? What is Putin’s vision of how to deal with the Middle East, assuming he has any vision at all.
I think Russia is just as worried about Islam as the US or the EU is. Which is to say that Russia is run by the same idiots we have here who insist there is no problem and also there is an intelligent part that recognizes there is a lot to worry about. And also there are economic (and strategic) interests involved. We all know that Russia depends on Syria for ports and also that Syria spends a lot of money in Russia for weapons, much like Israel spends money in the US for weapons.
It is not inconceivable that Russia could be a force for stability in the region assuming that it repents the role it once played under the Soviet Union. If, and only if …
All above arguments valid but I feel that Putin ie Russia would love to a world prime mover but judging by past history Russia cannot be trusted .
So my answer is NO – they shouls stay where they are – out of physical harms way – its enough that they supply that sociopath Assad with killer weapons and devices that may hinder Israel in defending itself
Qatar offers ‘gift’ of natural gas to ease Egypt’s summer of discontent
http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/06/12/qatar-offers-gift-of-natural-gas-to-ease-egypts-summer-of-discontent/
another indication of the GCC leash on egypt and hamas
Netanyahu getting ‘several’ calls weekly from Kerry on Palestinian state
http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/06/11/netanyahu-getting-several-calls-weekly-from-kerry-on-palestinian-state/
they are always the last to know about what goes on in the ME
Their money and carrots and sticks get everyone on board to their ideas, to which nobody ever agrees, and then their stupid ideas fail; only the americans are surprised at their failures. US arrogance, combined with money, creates a mid east which stumbles from US fiasco to US fiasco. the only thing that unites Israel with the rest of the ME is incredulity of US schemes and a desire for US$. Everyone is perennially waiting for the current set of US buffoons to expire so as to prepare for the next set of idiots. I have a suspicion that focus of everyone in the ME, including Israel, will begin to shift to a more pragmatic and predictable Russia and China. I will not be surprised to see the GCC and Israel in an under the table rapprochement to resolve conflicts directly. If the US is out of the picture there may be better chances to resolve conflict directly.
Assad seen winning back territory; U.S. intel ‘on Syria was totally wrong’
http://www.worldtribune.com/2013/06/12/assad-seen-winning-back-territory-u-s-intel-on-syria-was-totally-wrong/
Obama’s grand deal seems to be meeting resistance
The Russians(Soviets) were deeply involved along the Suez Front during the War of Attrition. I would see a Russian involvement along a potential war front as very ominous, and reminiscent of all the trouble the Russians fomented in the late ’60’s and early ’70’s. It led directly to the near-disastrous Yom Kippur War.
I would much rather see the Israelis have to deal with assorted Islamic radical terrorist groups rather than a Russian-assisted revitalized Assad regime. If Assad went, sooner or later the Russians would find new allies with the Islamic terrorists who succeed him. you’d have Russia entrenched in the Middle East in a way they never were and the Israelis would be facing them directly. Don’t forget, it was a poorly kept secret that Israel engaged Soviet fighters over Egypt during the War of Attrition and they were really facing Soviet-assisted ground forces, including air defense systems, at the same time.
I see almost no upside for Israel if Russiand establish themselves on the Syrian ground, even as peacekeepers, and tremendous downside. They would probably end up controlling Syria, making it their most distant Russian province.
ppksky Said:
I believe that Putin will act upon his, and russian, self-interest. palestinian nationalism and beliefs in general will be irrelevant except as in so far they further russia’s interests. This is how most nations act even when pretending to act upon beliefs and values.
@ bernard ross:
Yes, what happens when the Russians secure the peace? Would Russia be a threat to Israel? It is already easy to see that NATO stands as a threat to Israel, why would Russia be any different? It is hard to see where Russia stands with Israel. It is easier to see where it stands with Syria, but Syria itself has a lot of ties with old Nazi Germany. Is the relationship anti-semitic at its roots? Is Putin an anti-semite?
If Russia could become another Canada in its relationship with Israel, it could be very well be a stabilizing influence in the area. But there is not only its relationship with Syria to think about. There is also Iran. At one time Iran’s nuclear program was Russian based.
The best indicator of Russian attitudes towards Israel is the whole notion of Palestinian nationalism. Are they believers?
the obvious problem with russian peacekeepers is that they would provide a front from which to fire behind and that Israelii incursions to prevent hezbullah acquring arms and threatening Israel would be hampered by a drive through the russians.