In my article Its all about ending the “occupation†and not about achieving a peace agreement I concluded “Thus this plan is intended to end the occupation of J & S without a peace agreement.”.
It seems I was bang on. Ted Belman
Dr. Aaron Lerner
Ramon suggests a return to the “Beilin-Mazen” ploy. For years the so-called “Beilin-Mazen” agreement was cited by withdrawal proponents as proof that a deal could be reached. This despite the fact that “Beilin-Mazen” “solved” thorny issues such as Jerusalem and refugees by providing for committees to solve the issues.
Ramon proposes to carry out a major withdrawal apparently creating a sovereign Palestinian state without even ever completing a final agreement with the Palestinians. After the withdrawal the Palestinians can revert to “armed struggle” if they don’t get what they want at the negotiating table.
Ramon apparently realizes this fatal flaw and tries to paper it over by suggesting that foreign forces will somehow depend the Jewish State from Palestinian attacks. This even if the Palestinians make a case in world forums that “Israeli intransigence” at the negotiating table leaves them no choice.
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Ramon: We should move quickly on final status accord of principles
Vice Premier Haim Ramon said Friday that Israel should move quickly to secure an accord on the principles of final status agreement with the Palestinians.
“I believe right now we have a partner,” said Ramon. “I don’t know for how long, so we must move quickly.”
Ramon, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s closest political allies, told Israel Radio that he supported a withdrawal from most of the West Bank, except for large settlement blocs. He suggested NATO forces could replace Israeli troops in the areas evacuated.
“In my eyes, the occupation of the territories threatens our very existence, our legitimacy and our international standing,” Ramon said in the radio interview.
[In my article above I wrote “This (non-recognition)doesn’t matter to Olmert, Barak, Peres and Livni. They just want to end the occupation.”
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Ramon would not specify the scope of the proposed pullout, but said he believes Israel should begin negotiations with Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas on the principles of a final status agreement.
[There is no way Abbas will p[lay this game.]
Recent weeks have seen a flurry of diplomatic activity between Israel and Abbas, who has been ruling the West Bank since the Islamic group Hamas seized power in Gaza in mid-June.
Olmert confirmed Wednesday that he intends to engage in negotiations with Abbas on the formation of a Palestinian state.
Olmert was responding to a Haaretz report, according to which he offered to hold negotiations toward an “Agreement of Principles” for the establishment of a Palestinian state comprised of the Gaza Strip and most of the West Bank.
Abbas, however, told Meretz Chairman Yossi Beilin during their meeting in Ramallah on Thursday that an agreement of principles would not be satisfactory. He said the Palestinian Authority is prepared to achieve a final status settlement with Israel by next fall, when an international Mideast peace conference is scheduled to take place.
A key part of my scenario forecast above is falling into place:
“An overwhelming majority of Palestinians – 68 percent – favor early legislative and presidential elections in the Palestinian Authority as a solution to the current political crisis in the Palestinian Authority, a poll published Sunday has found.
The survey, conducted by the research center of al-Najjah University in Nablus, also found that if elections were held now, the Islamic Hamas movement would receive only 15.1 percent of the vote, compared to 42 percent for Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party.”
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/887346.html
My take on this is that Israel has to the end of summer to get its act together to dump Olmert or at least stymie his efforts to do anything until a new election can be had. Failing that, Israel’s best chance of being saved from herself lies yet again with Palestinian Jew hatred breaking free from its thin restraints.
Charles
Right on. And by the fall.
Here’s my view of what is happening:
Olmert/Ramon/Livni are in the process of “negotiating” a Palestinian state along the lines that Olmert has outlined in the last couple of weeks, i.e., withdrawal from 90% of the WB, shared sovereignty over Jerusalem, a tunnel between the WB and Gaza.
In return, the only thing Abbas has agreed is the removal of the word “armed” from the “armed resistance” language in the PAs platform.
Note that there has been no change to the PLO or Fatah charters calling for the destruction of Israel.
America’s man, Salam Fayad, will be legitimized as Palestinian PM following the next election in which Fatah and/or Fayad’s party will win a majority of seats due to Hamas’ recent decline in popularity and Abbas’ intent to modify (READ: rig) the election process. This will de-legitimize Hamas rule in Gaza and open the door for Israel to launch an offensive to destroy their military capabilities.
Voila! The Palestinians get their “viable and contiguous” state with Jerusalem as their capital; Israel is rid of Hamas, the “burden” of the WB, and receives “normalized” relations with the Arab world; Bush gets his Nobel Prize and legacy as something other than the worst president in US history; and Muslims around the world spontaneously abandon violent jihad against the West as there is finally “justice” in the Middle East.
And if you believe that last paragraph, I have some very overvalued swampland in Florida you may be interested in.